Nov 7Member-onlyWhat’s the point in a point estimate?What do percentage figures mean when stating a legal case’s prospects? More than once, having drafted legal advice and distilled my opinion on prospects of success into a percentage figure, the client has come back to me and questioned how I arrived at it. The simple answer is (or in…Legal7 min readLegal7 min read
Dec 4, 2021Member-onlyLegal reasoning and the prosecutor’s fallacyThe Prosecutor’s fallacy This is the classic illustration: a murder takes place. The forensics team identify hair from the crime scene. A DNA test is carried out, indicating that someone with a previous conviction who lives in the same town is a match. The suspect is arrested. An expert report…3 min read3 min read
Dec 4, 2021Member-onlyThe future of employment litigationThe justice system’s debts You don’t have to pore through the pages of the Ministry of Justice’s statistics publications to be struck by the stark imbalance between the tally of employment cases that are filed each year, and the tribunal service’s ability to hear them. …8 min read8 min read
May 16, 2021Member-onlyThe problem with the forced distribution model — Alex MacMillan:In 2019 the UK’s civil service changes its mind about its use of forced distributions ( https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/971013/SCS-PM-UpdatedGuidance-April2021_1.0.pdf ), deciding instead to move to more flexible, non-mandatory objective setting. The change came about only recently, from April 2021, for the 2021–22 performance year. …3 min read3 min read
May 14, 2021How to guess your award (without paying lawyers) — the employment law casinoImagine that, for whatever reason, you do not wish to engage a lawyer. Perhaps they are too expensive; perhaps lawyers do not have your trust. But you are numerate, and approach the endeavour with the seriousness of a bookie. The context is you believe you have a strong employment claim…Employment Law5 min readEmployment Law5 min read
May 10, 2021Game theory — and Scottish independence — Alex MacMillan:A brief excursus from the law to tackle current affairs… Following the electoral results from Saturday (8 May 2021), the Financial Times reports today that Michael Gove, UK Cabinet Office Minister, has waved aside the suggestion that an advisory referendum on independence is on the cards — Westminster’s ‘exclusive attention’…Scottish Independence5 min readScottish Independence5 min read
