Legal reasoning and the prosecutor’s fallacy
3 min readDec 4, 2021
The Prosecutor’s fallacy
This is the classic illustration: a murder takes place. The forensics team identify hair from the crime scene. A DNA test is carried out, indicating that someone with a previous conviction who lives in the same town is a match.
The suspect is arrested. An expert report is produced: it states that there is only a 1 in 10,000 chance that…